Post-virus everything is going to change. That’s the dominant view of national and international media. But how exactly do they see the future? This regular digest section gives some of their answers and views/Edited by George Hamilton
Special edition: TRAVEL AND TOURISM (May 4)
- ‘Holiday at home’
- Travel and tourism face enormous threats to their existence, not least in Northern Ireland, where Tourism NI chief John McGrillen – in an important statement that sadly didn’t appear to get much traction – is appealing for us to stay home and help save the industry.
- Belfast International spending ‘£60,000 a day’
- MD Graham Keddie is doing this to help retain the 5,000 jobs at the airport
- The golden age of air travel is over
- Expect to see big changes, especially with low-cost carriers. But analysts say that people will still want to go on holiday.
- Post-virus: the 4-hour airport wait…
- ...and like many other pieces, this also forecasts higher fares because social distancing will mean fewer people per plane – and therefore increased costs.
- Some airlines very slowly starting back…
- …but while currently there are around 1.6 million seats on offer in Western Europe, this compares to about 18.6 million at the end of January
- Cruising ‘will be back within a year’
- Tour giant TUI says half of their customers whose cruises were cancelled have already re-booked
- Travel insurance: cost hike, plus more penalties for older travellers
- Premiums expected to rise by 20 pc, and will be higher for cruise trips and the over 65s
- …and finally, a bit of light relief. It’s rich: ‘How do I use the washing machine and change the loo roll?
- How the wealthy are coping without servants. Poor things
‘Protect NI’s tourism industry and save jobs: stay here’
John McGrillen is CEO of Tourism NI: When this crisis is over and we begin that journey to recovery, we will, once again, need that local spirit as we campaign to “Holiday at home”, “Save jobs” and “Protect our tourism industry”.
The pandemic has effectively led to the closing down of the world’s tourism and travel industry in a space of eight weeks…when our industry emerges from this crisis, it will look very different and it is increasingly clear there is no defined end.
Even the most optimistic commentators are forecasting global tourist arrivals declining by 40% in 2020. The UN World Tourism Organisation is predicting up to 75 million tourism jobs lost globally.
Before Easter, Tourism NI spoke to 1,300 tourism and hospitality businesses via an online survey.
The survey showed the Covid-19 impact would be severe on 79% of businesses in the short-term and 63% in the longer term and there could be yet more pain to come.
Consumer confidence in travel is at an all-time low. The global aviation and cruise industries are facing existential challenges. Older people may be less willing to travel for quite some time and it may take up to three years before we see any real recovery in cruise, long-haul and group travel business.
Business tourism will struggle to return to pre-Covid levels, as corporations and, indeed, their employees, may see international travel as more of a risk than a reward, certainly in the short term.
As meeting digitally will move from being necessary, to acceptable and eventually habitual, live events are unlikely to take place with the scale and frequency that they have done in the past.
And, of course, many people may have lost their jobs, meaning fewer people with money in their pockets to spend on short breaks and overnight stays.
The impact of all of this will be fierce competition among destinations and businesses competing for a reduced customer base.
All current research points to the fact that the recovery of the tourism industry will begin in the domestic market, followed by closer-to-home markets and, eventually, long haul.
Some 76% of our tourism spend came from the UK and Ireland last year, so we have historically been less dependent on long-haul markets, which creates an advantage.
We are developing new marketing campaigns and these will be ready to run once the time is right.
We are also refocusing our Tourism Enterprise Development Programme to meet the immediate requirements of tourism businesses and to help them compete in the new world we are entering into.
While the challenges are, no doubt, daunting, crisis can bring opportunity. As the global tourism industry resets, the assumptions that previously informed business models no longer apply and every tourism destination is effectively in start-up mode. This can allow us to re-shape ourselves in a way that brings greatest benefit to local communities.
Consumers are likely to have a greater focus on sustainability.
Smaller groups are likely to seek out authentic experiences that allow the visitor to connect with the landscape and local communities. Smaller cities and rural destinations may well replace the demand for large and densely populated destinations. Belfast Telegraph 30 Apr
Belfast International burning ‘£60,000 per day to keep Northern Ireland open’
All passenger flights have been cancelled at Belfast International, but it “comes alive” at night with a busy schedule of freight flights bringing supplies in and out of the region.
Of Northern Ireland’s three airports, there are just a small number of connections to London for passengers from Belfast City and City of Derry.
Belfast International Airport managing director Graham Keddie said “we have remained open seven days a week, 24 hours a day – we ain’t closing,” he said.
“Essentially keeping us open is costing a cash burn of about £60,000 a day, there is no doubt about it, it will cause us damage down the line but ultimately it’s about our business, it’s about our staff, it’s about things coming back, so you have got to always look on the positive side and…look forward to business coming back again.”
Mr Keddie is currently recovering from Covid-19 himself and stressed he only wants to see the passenger flights return when it is safe to do so.“The illness is not fun, I was very very lucky. I didn’t have to go into hospital but I was absolutely flattened and (am) still not 100% – and I was always healthy,” he said.
He added: “First of all, [we need] to get the domestic operation up and running – 70% of our business is domestic – as quickly as possible but making sure as safely and healthily as possible.
“There are 4-5,000 people work on our site across 250 companies, we need to get those back” he added
“We are hoping middle of May for a return of our passenger flights but that could be moveable depending how we work it, both from a Government perspective, airline and airport, but we are trying to put things in place now while the terminal is empty – two metre rule, putting in screens, etc – and we’re working on that as we speak.
“A no-mask, no-fly rule would help us get flying again as a possible solution after lockdown, but as always we will be guided by the science and health experts.” News Letter 2 May
Meanwhile, in the Belfast Telegraph (2 May), https://www.belfasttelegraph.
“A lot is going to depend on how we behave as consumers. A lack of confidence may lead to a lack of demand and a scaling back of routes as carriers react” he added
The golden age of air travel is over
British Airways owner IAG recently posted its worst quarterly loss, and said up to 12,000 staff could face redundancy.
Nicky Stewart of Edison Investment Research says the announcement “undoubtedly” marks the end of the golden age of air travel. “This is a catastrophe for the near-term outlook. Industry participants think the sector won’t recover post pandemic to previous levels, for three to four years.
“Global passenger numbers have doubled every 15 years since 1987 to more than four billion … the trend has proven pretty resilient to external shocks including 9/11, SARS and the financial crisis. However, with social distancing coming when flights resume, Covid-19 is presenting the biggest challenge in history for the industry.”
Alexandre de Juniac, the boss of airlines trade body IATA said: “The industry is in freefall and we have not hit bottom.”
Rob Byde, an aviation analyst at City broker Cantor Fitzgerald, agrees that “significant short term pain” is on the way for the industry, but some airlines will use it to their advantage.
“Many carriers such as BA and [German flag carrier] Lufthansa will use this crisis to accelerate restructuring plans,” he says, with BA focusing on key markets such as transatlantic routes.
There is little doubt in the holiday market that 2020 needs to be written off. For travel agents and airlines, it will be a case of getting through this year with their business intact.
But for the survivors, there could be cause for optimism. Byde says: “Leisure flying will be more resilient. If we have a vaccine by early 2021, I would expect a good recovery in holiday flying by the summer.”
John Strickland, an independent aviation consultant, expects to see numerous changes to the industry. “Initially many of these could be retrograde compared to the industry we’ve known until now,” he says.
Top of the list of backward steps is pressure on budget airlines, which have driven the sharp rise in air travel. Passengers enjoying low-cost, short-haul flights may be replaced by long car or train journeys.
Meanwhile, ticket prices could be on the up. “With capacity taken out of the system most carriers will likely lift fares where they can and retain the benefits of lower fuel costs to generate higher profits and pay down debt,” says Byde.
“The fundamental issue is that people’s desire to travel for holidays and it is difficult to see that trend reversing,” says Stewart. Daily Telegraph 29 Apr
Four-hour wait to board flights’ after coronavirus pandemic
Air passengers could face four-hour waits to board planes, inflated ticket prices and a dramatically reduced schedule in the future, analysts have said.
The flight experience would be “very uncomfortable” after lockdown, with pre-pandemic levels of service unlikely for up to five years, they predicted.
It is widely expected that some form of health screening will be demanded before and after passengers fly to prevent a second wave of the virus.
One expert said that four-hour waits before departures could be expected, up from one or two now, as medical tests were added to the normal pre-flight ritual of check-in, security, passport control and boarding.
It is also likely that social distancing will be maintained on aircraft, with warnings that as few as 20 per cent of seats may be filled to keep passengers at least two metres apart.
Another analyst said that budget airlines typically had to fill at least 80 per cent of seats to break even, so passengers could expect a big increase in prices. Unprofitable routes will be abolished. The Times 30 Apr
Airlines offer hope for post-lockdown travel
European airlines have added more than 700,000 seats to their weekly schedules as the aviation industry takes the first small steps towards recovery after the two hardest months in its history.
Croatia Airlines announced plans to resume a handful services from May 11, and new figures released by the aviation analyst OAG have revealed the first green shoots after 10 consecutive weeks of capacity cuts.
According to its data, airlines in Western Europe offered 1.61m seats last week, up 42.4% on the previous week, while Eastern European carriers have increased capacity by 29.3% to 1.01m. It offers some hope that, once lockdown restrictions are lifted, Britons willing to travel will have a reasonable number of route options at their disposal.
However, compared with pre-crisis levels, the decline has been staggering. Western European carriers offered 18.6m seats in the week commencing January 20; this week’s figure was 1.6m. While an improvement, it remains paltry. Daily Telegraph 30 Apr
Cruising will be back to normal in a year, says Tui
Demand for cruises will bounce back to pre-coronavirus levels within as little as a year, according to the boss of Tui Cruises.
Wybcke Meier said that despite being forced to cancel dozens of cruises, she was positive that the business would rebound quickly.
“We are convinced that in the long-term the demand for premium and luxury cruises will not change,” she said. “We will see the demand for cruises return to pre-crisis level within 12 to 18 months.”
Ms Meier said that roughly half of those guests whose trips have been cancelled have already rebooked.
Her remarks echo those of Euan Sutherland, the boss of London-listed firm Saga. The insurance and travel company boasts “a pretty stoic and determined group of customers”, he said earlier this month. “There is a huge appetite from our customers to get back out there.” Daily Telegraph 1 May
Travel insurance after un-lock: hiked prices, especially for older travellers
Because of the virus, we will not only have to pay more for travel insurance, but it will be impossible to get cover for any future impact the virus – and other potential pandemics – may have on our holidays and travel plans. Without such insurance, many people may be reluctant to commit to booking or travelling until they are confident the virus is under control.
One factor which will affect cost will be whether the Government manages to negotiate a continuation of the reciprocal Ehic scheme which entitles British citizens to free – or subsidised – emergency treatment in EU countries. If it doesn’t, and Covid-19 continues to be a threat, then insurance – especially for older travellers in Europe – is likely to become more expensive and possibly harder to find.
Overall, Peter Hayman, of the specialist travel insurers PJ Hayman, estimates that premiums will rise as much as 20 per cent across the market, with potentially larger increases for passengers on cruises where the virus will be perceived as a greater risk. The highest rises are likely to be on policies for the over 65s. The same is likely to be true for anyone with a pre-existing medical conditions. Daily Telegraph 1 May
No staff? How the super rich are coping in lockdown
Seeing as we’re all in this lockdown together, let us spare a thought for the super-rich. In castles, palaces and penthouses across the land, oligarchs, royals, hedge-funders and trust-funders are having to confront a terrible truth: toilets do not clean themselves. Marble is a devil to look after. And keeping the silverware sparkling is surprisingly hard work.
“People are wanting to know — literally — how to do the laundry,” says Lucy Challenger, 36, who runs Polo and Tweed, a recruitment agency that supplies staff to the wealthy. “They’ve never used a washing machine before. We explain how to understand the settings, how to separate the items. To you and me, maybe this is common sense, but if you’ve never had to do it before, it’s a bizarre new world of skills.”
One woman in Chelsea called for help because she did not know how to change the loo roll. Another believed that antique mahogany dining tables should be scrubbed clean, and someone else took a Brillo pad to her wildly expensive roll-top enamel bath and was shocked to discover that she had ruined it.
“A lot are faced with having to cook for the first time. Normally, they are out, having breakfast on the move, lunch out, dinner with clients. Suddenly they are at home, having to cook for their families. That’s a bit of a shock to the system.”
About 70 per cent of Challenger’s clients live in the UK, although they include a range of nationalities, including American, Russian and “a lot of the Middle Eastern royal family”. She trains their staff in yacht and house management, silver service and British etiquette.
One of the biggest shocks super-rich homeowners have had during lockdown has been realising that silver tarnishes quickly. “They say, ‘Can we put the silver in the dishwasher?’ No! Don’t do that. A lot of them are highly intelligent, highly successful, and they don’t want to faff around with Google; they want to speak to an expert. They say, ‘We don’t have time to deal with this. We don’t have time to figure it out. Please help us.’” Bless. The Times 29 Apr
