Former vice president Joe Biden’s odds received a boost in 2020 US Elections betting markets in recent weeks. Yet, with Biden’s presidential campaign going to ground on the heels of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States, the improvement in Biden’s odds can be described as circumstantial rather than being down to any traditional campaigning. A natural consequence of the current status quo and, even, to some extent, a reaction to what is clearly one of the most unprecedented public health crises to hit the world in the last one hundred years.
Senator Bernie Sanders’ belated withdrawal from the race in early April and, at the same time, the high profile endorsements that followed, of which the most significant was former president Barack Obama properly giving support to his chum’s bid, helped to solidify Biden’s odds in the presidential race of late.
“Joe has the character and the experience to guide us through one of our darkest times and heal us through a long recovery,” Mr Obama said. He also added that picking Biden as his running mate in 2008 was one of the best decisions he ever made.
However, by the field essentially whittling down to just the two candidates – Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the likely representatives of their respective parties – bookmakers were left with two realistic outcomes to price accordingly. Technically, Biden is only the presumptive nominee but he is coasting as the Democratic National Congress decision moves closer.
When a bet has a 50-50 chance of materializing, the range of odds can be limited. Then there is the relationship between major newsworthy developments and political betting odds that can become more pronounced in times of economic and social strife and hardship, such as that which is currently brought on by the COVID-19 outbreak across the United States.
Joe Biden has come a long way in recent months as the Democratic frontrunner – the Democratic National Congress’ official selection won’t be made until later in the summer – and the odds for Biden have improved in political betting markets significantly to clinch the nomination.
Back in early February, Biden’s campaign looked to be on very uneasy footing; according to 2020 US Elections markets then, which tipped Biden on odds that were symptomatic of a low probability to secure the Democratic nomination, it would have been fair to say he was a longshot bet.
The tide turned spectacularly in Biden’s favour on Super Tuesday when he collected a ransom in delegates and muscled his way to the front of the nominee queue. Opposing candidates dropping out of the race around that time also helped channel the momentum in Biden’s favour further. Things seemed to be finally going Biden’s way, to the delight of his supporters.
That positive trajectory lasted until COVID-19 stopped traditional electioneering dead in the tracks merely a few weeks later. Biden’s infrequent appearances and noticeable lack of a response to the unprecedented crisis did come under heavy criticism, but it surprisingly didn’t detract from his odds.
Over the weekend, Biden’s odds to win the 2020 US Elections oscillated on either side of even money, moving in a constant ebb and flow that is quite common to fluid political betting markets that ripple at the slightest bit of breaking news. The mounting tension between the Trump administration and state governors over how and when to reopen the economy is the latest development to play a part in the movement across betting platforms.
Incumbent administrations are always held against the measure of their performance during their term in office. It’s no different during the extraordinary coronavirus crisis that has turned everything on its head, with public opinion divided on how Donald Trump is tackling the crisis affecting betting trends as a result.
The fight against COVID-19 is far from over, meaning the odds and betting trends are likely to flit back and forth between the pair until November when the nation casts its vote. Every move and decision made (or not made) by either candidate will be scrutinized, every development assessed on its merit. It’s anybody’s guess how the 2020 US elections will unfold but if current trends are any indication, there are bound to be more surprise moves on the political horizon.
