House price growth slowed in November and sales activity was lower than in October, according to results of the monthly RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) and Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Residential Market Survey.

A net balance of +27 percent of Northern Ireland surveyors responding to the November survey said that prices rose over the past three months. However, this was the lowest net balance for prices in Northern Ireland since mid-2016 and was down from +46 percent in October.

Whilst surveyors indicate that prospective buyers are still active in the market, with a net balance of +10 percent reporting a rise in new buyer enquiries last month, fewer sales were seen to be taking place. Seven percent more survey respondents said that the number of newly agreed sales fell last month than said they rose.

RICS and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey, Northern Ireland

Fewer properties coming onto the market appears to be one factor in this, with the net balance of respondents reporting that the number of new vendor instructions was lower in November than in October.

There is change expected, however, with sales expectations over the next three months looking more positive. A net balance of +22 percent of respondents expects the number of sales to increase in the December to February period. The 12-month outlook for sales activity is also more positive than it was, with a +31 percent net balance, compared to +21 in the October survey.

Prices are also expected to rise over the next 12 months, with 67 percent more respondents to the November survey anticipating that house prices will rise (rather than fall). In this respect, Northern Ireland surveyors are amongst the most optimistic in the UK. Only Wales has a higher net balance of respondents expecting prices to be higher in a year’s time.

Samuel Dickey, RICS Residential Property Spokesman in Northern Ireland, said: “It is not surprising that activity is easing back as we approach the end of the year and price momentum is slowing, not least with the uncertainty that comes before a General Election. However, the indications from respondents are that the new year will see activity increase and prices continue to edge upwards. Indeed, the feedback regarding both prices and sales in the short-term and medium term has strengthened.”

Terry Robb, Head of Personal Banking at Ulster Bank, said: “The easing back of housing market activity in November is in line with the wider economic environment as indicators such as the Ulster Bank PMI show that business activity for instance fell significantly last month. However, our pipeline of mortgage activity remains strong and we continue to see good demand from prospective homebuyers. This should translate into housing market activity in early 2020.”

The main findings of the RICS and Ulster Bank Residential Market Survey, Northern Ireland,

The net balance of respondents reporting a rise in house prices over the last 3 months was +27%, an easing back from the net balance of +46% in October
New buyer enquiries in the last month also continued to increase (according to a net balance of +10%), however, the net balance eased back from +22% October
The net balance for newly agreed sales was -7%, suggesting that fewer sales were agreed in November than in October
New instructions to sell also fell back according to a net balance of -8% of respondents, meaning that there has been no increase reported in nine of the last 10 months
The net balance for price expectations in the next three months is +15% and the net balance for sales expectations is +22%.