Post-virus everything is going to change. That’s the dominant view of national and international media. But how exactly do they see the future? This regular digest section gives some of their answers and views/Edited by George Hamilton

In this edition (1 May)

The NI Executive: it won’t last
The NI Executive, split every way, will not last, says Sam McBride, the News Letter’s political editor
NI’s post-virus economic hit
Danske Bank says the impact will be “staggering”
TV production: no filming, plus casting and finance issues
As elsewhere in the UK, NI‘s film and TV producers, and facilities, are facing major problems
UK “no” to EU Belfast office to police the new border-in-the-Irish-Sea
“There’s no need for a mini-embassy” says Michael Gove
Can Europe’s restaurants survive the lockdown?
An entire continent’s gastronomic culture remains in limbo.
The whole idea of global value chains will be reconsidered
The lesson of the virus may be that governments will want key strategic industries to be home grown
SHORT STORIES..
The Irish “new normal”/Ford boss: “No future”/Touching: skin hunger

Sam McBride: Riven with division, NI Executive may be dying

Mandatory coalition – in which the parties representing 84 of Stormont’s 90 MLAs are entitled to ministries – shackles together not only tribal opposites but ideological opposites.

Economic socialists are harnessed up with capitalists, social conservatives are asked to drive forward with social liberals and advocates of big government find themselves working in union with quasi-libertarians.

In those circumstances, it is not only unsurprising that the cart of government being drawn by such contradictory horses does not proceed smoothly; it is a wonder that it has proceeded at all.

So far this administration has taken almost a month to come up with a list of essential businesses – and then published the wrong list.

The first and deputy first ministers have stood side by side while openly contradicting each other over which businesses should open.

Supermarkets have been unable to offer priority online delivery slots to the vulnerable because Stormont has been unable to give them accurate details. The Finance Minister was about to start to transfer £170 million for personal protection equipment from China when he realised that it wasn’t coming and it then became clear there had never been a signed contract.

Testing for the virus has taken weeks to get to the point where even key workers can all be tested in order to keep them on the front line.

The Executive has spent an entire week unable to agree whether grieving individuals should be allowed to visit graveyards.

Stormont’s symptoms suggest that this form of government may be dying. But there is no guarantee that what takes its place is the voluntary coalition which the most consistent critic of mandatory coalition – Jim Allister – would prefer.

A chaotic collapse of devolution in the midst of a pandemic could constitute the sort of seismic upheaval out of which hitherto fantastical constitutional change may become possible.

It would be surprising if some republicans – some of whom have been linked with the taking of human life, such is their commitment to Irish unity – are not pondering how on the eve of Northern Ireland’s centenary this crisis might enable their goal.

Plague can drive people together – and there has been evidence of it. But it can also drive people apart. If death on this scale cannot drive the Executive together, can anything? Belfast News Letter 25 Apr

NI’s post-virus economic hit will be “staggering”

Northern Ireland’s economy is set to shrink by a “staggering” 7.5% with the unemployment rate doubling to 5%, according to the Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts report by Danske Bank. It said hospitality would be the worst-hit sector, with a contraction of 17%.

Recreation and entertainment would follow closely – shrinking by 16.8%, while manufacturing would suffer a contraction of 12%.

The survey also forecasts growth of 5% in 2021 but added that the economy is not likely to reach pre-coronavirus activity until 2022 or 2023.

The forecasts are based on the assumption that the current lockdown remains in place until somewhere between the end of May and the middle of June before gradually being lifted, with some social distancing measures expected to remain in place for a longer period of time.

Looking at individual sectors the report said the accommodation and food industry (-17.0%), arts, entertainment and recreation (-16.8%) and education (-14.2%) would bear the brunt of lockdown measures. Belfast Telegraph 28 Apr

UK (and NI) film and TV production: post-virus impact will last a long time

Northern Ireland has a vibrant and growing film and TV production sector, but this piece shows some of the problems its going to face because of the virus.

For live shows, it’s been a matter of finding new ways to operate, but scripted dramas and comedies are facing a new reality. Production has been halted for UK television shows. Netflix and Disney+ have had to hit pause on creating their content. There has been no other option than for TV channels to space out pre-recorded content so they don’t run out of episodes – Emmerdale and Coronation Street have cut back to three episodes a week rather than the usual six, for instance.

But shows that hadn’t started filming yet or that were in the early stages of production face an issue. Some top-billing television actors could have a build-up of several shows later on in the year, meaning they’ll have to choose between them.

Tom Harrington, senior TV analyst at Enders Analysis said: “The funding for that show would have been contingent on that person being in it, so that show won’t end up getting made.”

This will hit smaller production companies the hardest. Often television shows will be funded out of their own pockets or through loans, and rely on being picked up by a broadcaster to reimburse them. With advertising revenue crumbling, any broadcasters that rely on it will be struggling for cash and so may not have the extra money to spend on smaller productions.

So many industries are facing hardship because of coronavirus and the lockdown. The irony is that even though more people than ever are watching television, the industry is having to tighten its belt. Expect to see more news, more unscripted shows and more technical difficulties in the coming months as broadcasters are forced to strip back. Wired 28 Apr

UK ‘no’ to EU office in Belfast to police ‘border-in-Irish-Sea’

The UK has vetoed a request by the EU to allow the EU to set up a permanent mission in Northern Ireland to police the Irish backstop deal.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, had made the request to the UK through the joint committee set up to ensure that both sides implemented all aspects of the withdrawal agreement. The mission would allow a base for EU customs officials, vets and other staff to check that no goods that did not comply with European standards entered the province.

Michael Gove, the Minister for the Cabinet Office, said:“Of course it is the case that the EU has the right to monitor the operation of what UK officials are doing, but there is no need for there to be a mini embassy in Belfast.”

Mr Gove also said that ministers have stood down the government’s no-deal Brexit planning operation, as he claimed that the chances of striking a deal were now at least 2-1.

But he conceded that big differences remained in the approaches taken by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, and the UK side and that “limited progress” had been made in last week’s negotiating round.

Key stumbling blocks include access to UK waters for EU fishing boats and “level playing field” demands designed to prevent unfair competition on issues such as workers’ rights, environmental protection and state subsidies. The Times 28 Apr

Can Europe’s restaurants survive the lockdown?

As European countries nervously begin to extricate themselves from restrictions to curb the spread of Covid-19, shops are beckoning in customers, metro trains are returning to regular service, and even hairdressers are sharpening their scissors.

Only three countries – Austria, the Czech Republic and Italy – have put a tentative date on when restaurants can resume service. Last Wednesday, the German government announced it would help the food industry by cutting VAT from 19% to 7% from 1 July.

“People don’t just fear for their livelihood – they are increasingly panicked,” said Thomas Lengfelder, the director of Berlin’s association for restaurants and hotels. “The corona restrictions will lead to a wave of bankruptcies like we have never seen before.”

German economy minister Peter Altmaier conceded his government might be forced to set up a “rescue fund for gastronomy” unless full openings could happen soon.

On 20 April, 18 of France’s most celebrated chefs published an open letter in Le Figaro warning that the country’s restaurants were “in danger of dying” and calling on the president, Emmanuel Macron, to allow them to open.

In Spain, at the time of year when tables and chairs would normally be returning to pavements and terraces outside cafes and bars, the authorities are exploring how a phased return might work.

This month, the mayor of Madrid, José Luis Martínez-Almeida, said the city council was looking into reducing capacity in restaurants, enlarging outside seating areas and installing screens to separate diners.

In Austria, restaurants will be allowed to reopen from 15 May if they adhere to a set of rules, including a maximum number of four adults per table and a minimum 1m distance between groups. Waiters will be required to wear masks while taking orders and serving dishes.

Italy is in lockdown until 3 May, after which restrictions will gradually be eased, with bars and restaurants scheduled to open on 1 June. But FIPE, the Italian association for bars and restaurants, warned last week that as many as 50,000 across the country may be forced to close for good. Guardian 28 Apr

The whole idea of global value chains will be reconsidered

Uma S Kambhampati: The philosophy [of globalisation] adopted by many leading economies in Europe and Asia, involved leaving “lower” stages to developing economies and concentrating on the more valuable stages instead. Manufacturing in the UK duly declined from almost 30% of the economy in 1979 when Margaret Thatcher came to power to 10% today. The assumption was that so long as we moved up the value chain and remained able to pay for what was available, supply would never be short.

This mindset was rudely disrupted by the nationalist ructions of the Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s election in 2016. And it has been turned on its head by COVID-19. Witness the UK’s struggle in accessing basic medical equipment to deal with the pandemic. Day after day in the press briefing, ministers are on the back foot over testing, personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators.

But it is the longer-term trends and international responses that really explain the failure. The lack of domestic manufacturing in the UK has meant no first-buyer privileges for the government to leverage.

The Germans could call on Swiss global diagnostics giant Roche, which has a heavy presence in Germany; while South Korea had smaller pharmaceutical producers such as Kogene Biotech. This helps explain why both countries have managed to test widely.

The UK is also not part of global supply chains for the basic components of the tests – reagents and nasal swabs – both of which are in short supply. The world’s largest supplier of nasal swabs is Copan of Lombardy, an early victim of the virus.

At the start of the crisis, Germany could place orders for 10,000 ventilators with domestic medical supply company Draegerwerk, one of the world’s three largest ventilator makers. The UK government had to rely on Dyson, Babcock, Airbus and Formula 1, none of whom were in this space already.

It is similar with masks. China made 50% of the world’s masks before the crisis, and has expanded production 12-fold just to meet domestic demand. The UK lacks the manufacturing capabilities to upscale in this way and has been unable to rely on the global market to provide the masks it needs.

As countries close their borders and turn production inwards, multinational firms that were part of global supply chains cannot export freely. China was not authorising mask exports at one stage – and even the output in China of the American conglomerate 3M cannot be exported back to its home country.

The UK’s strategy of concentrating on R&D and innovation, as well as services in which it is reckoned to have a comparative advantage such as law, finance and advertising, was part of this wider focus on globalisation that was highly successful in peacetime. The shortcomings have certainly been highlighted in 2020.

Governments are realising that global production carries profound risks in a crisis. The UK government seems to be realising that it needs to reduce reliance on international production. In future, countries will probably decide on key strategic industries in which they need to be self-sufficient. This may well increase costs for consumers – but they may be willing to pay the price.

When the dust settles on COVID-19, our whole approach to global trade looks likely to be reconsidered. Uma S Kambhampati is Professor of Economics, Head of School, University of Reading. The Conversation 28 Apr

SHORT STORIES…

#1. Ireland will need to get used to a ‘new normal’: People will have to get used to a “new normal” in behaviours as society comes to terms with Covid-19 in the long term, Ireland’s chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan has warned.

It will become “socially unacceptable” for people to go to work or school with cold or flu symptoms, he said.

“The message will be, almost like smoking in company, this is something we don’t do anymore. We have to get used to a new normal.” Irish Times 29 Apr

#2. Ford chief: ‘There is no future’: Ford boss Jim Hackett warned “there is no future” as he unveiled the carmaker’s first-quarter results which showed the company faced a potential $5 billion loss

In a monologue which one veteran Ford watcher described as “unreal” and “eerie”, he said: “The nature of times brings to mind the notion of paradox.

“And I like to think of the definition of a paradox as two truths that compete.”

He described the “first truth” as people’s safety. Mr Hackett said: “The communities you live in and amazingly all other humans you interact with, their safety guarantees your safety.

“The second truth, there is no future. If we don’t have an economic system that is always on, we didn’t realise there was an off switch. We knew it might go into a recession more like a dimmer switch, but off.

The chief executive said his job was “managing this paradox and confirming we have control of the business in a very difficult time.”

One analyst said: “He’s a chief executive who thinks he’s cleverer than anyone else. He may be when it comes to running a company but not in the way he speaks. He’s the worst sort of chief executive – one who thinks he’s a philosopher.” Daily Telegraph 29 Apr

#3. Skin hunger: the desperate longing for human touch. The neurological phenomenon of ‘skin hunger’ is being supercharged by the coronavirus pandemic. Skin hunger is the biological need for human touch.

“When you touch the skin,” explains Tiffany Field of the Touch Research Institute at the University of Miami, “the nervous system slows down, heart rate and blood pressure decrease, and your brain waves show relaxation. Levels of stress hormones such as cortisol are also decreased.” In other words, human touch is biologically good for you. Being touched makes humans feel calmer, happier, and more sane.

Field’s team have been carrying out research during the lockdown: 26 per cent of the 100 people they surveyed told them they felt very deprived of touch, and 16 per cent moderately. Of the sample, 97 per cent also reported sleep disturbances. “When you move the skin you increase serotonin,” explains Field. Low serotonin has been linked to insomnia, anxiety, and depression.

But there are strategies to reduce skin hunger for those self-isolating alone. “Get as much exercise as you can,” Field says. “Simply walking around your room stimulates the pressure receptors in your feet. Give yourself a scalp massage, or rub moisturiser into your face. These are all different ways people can move their skin.” Wired 29 Apr