Also in this issue
- West Midlands firms need government help with cash flow, after Brexit. A pointer for N Ireland?
- UK will need 50,000 extra border staff
- French say Australia-style deal is “for the birds”
And as the EU talks start, the government will also today be publishing its mandate for the US trade talks, which will run in parallel
…and finally, two somewhat different views about the Brexit debate: “Ireland has got the upper hand” says the Irish Times, and new baby Johnston may have a Brexit godfather
There is a landing zone for a UK-EU trade deal
The editorial board of the Financial Times says the British approach to negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, published last week…is much more conciliatory than the often aggressive rhetoric that framed it.
As talks begin in Brussels on Monday, there are substantial areas of agreement between the two sides and an outline of a “landing zone” — if there is willingness to compromise.
A deal is still a big prize. Trading with the EU only on World Trade Organization terms would deeply damage both sides’ economies purely through the imposition of tariffs — as high as 10 per cent on cars and 22 per cent on food.
Headlines suggesting Mr Johnson would “tear up” the political declaration, the non-binding agreement from the first stage of Brexit talks that set out the rough shape of the future trading relationship, were not borne out by the text of its negotiating approach.
Neither does the EU’s negotiating mandate go as far on a level playing field as some suggest. It only calls for EU law to be used a “reference point” for worker and environmental protections, rather than be directly implemented in the UK. State aid, however — where Brussels wants Britain to continue to follow EU law — is a notable exception.
Bellicose language now may be a tactic to ensure any deal can later be “sold” to a UK domestic audience as a success, but does not help build trust.
UK evasiveness over the protocol has already eroded trust. Mr Johnson says there will be no regulatory checks in the Irish Sea, though these are required by the withdrawal agreement, but never spells out how. All this is grounds for caution. A deal is there to be done — but there is no guarantee that it will be. Financial Times 1 March
https://www.ft.com/content/
Post Brexit, young EU migrants can take unskilled jobs
Boris Johnson is poised to allow thousands of young migrants into Britain who could fill low-skilled job vacancies as part of a post-Brexit trade deal.
The Youth Mobility Scheme, which currently allows under-30s from eight non-EU countries into the UK for a two-year period, is set to be extended to EU nations in any deal with Brussels.
Home Office sources said there would be nothing to stop applicants working in bars, restaurants or as agricultural labourers, which would enable farmers to recruit more migrant workers than the 10,000 allowed under the seasonal agricultural workers scheme.
The Youth Mobility Scheme currently attracts 20,000 18- to 30-year-olds each year. Applicants do not have to have a job offer before they arrive, but they must have £1,890 in savings. They cannot apply if they have dependent children. Daily Telegraph 28 Feb
Firms ‘need £1bn cash flow aid after exit from EU’
West Midlands mayor Andy Street is pushing ministers for a £1bn contingency fund to ease the threat of a cash flow crisis for firms triggered by potential supply chain chaos next year.
Mr Street, the Conservative mayor since 2017, has talked with ministers including new Business Secretary Alok Sharma over reviving support used in the financial crisis, including cheap loans or loan guarantees to help firms building up stockpiles to cope with disrupted “just in time” supply chains.
Businesses importing goods and components from the EU also face an extra 20pc in up-front cost as the Government plans to abandon the VAT deferral scheme that currently lets them delay payment, Make UK has warned.
Under Theresa May, the Government planned to continue the deferral scheme post-Brexit. But under Mr Johnson the extra costs will kick in from next January. Daily Telegraph 1 March
UK needs extra 50,000 border staff
A race to hire 50,000 people in the next six months to process Brexit paperwork is under way after the government confirmed they would be needed for border operations.
The Road Haulage Association (RHA) has warned that the number of declaration forms for tariffs alone will rocket from the current 50m a year to 200-250m a year. In addition, exit and entry forms will involve another 100-125m forms being processed every year.
Neighbouring countries including France, the Netherlands and Ireland launched customs officials recruitment drives last year, with six-month training schedules considered a minimum.
Agents in Dover who deal with lorries coming in from the Ukraine, Turkey and other non-EU countries have warned that the skills base around customs disappeared with the creation of the single market in 1991, with just a handful of customs agents now operating in offices in Dover. Guardian 28 Feb
Australia-style deal is ‘for the birds’
France has mocked Boris Johnson’s claim that the UK can have an Australia-style deal with the EU after Brexit as “for the birds”, warning an extra six months may be needed to strike an ambitious trade deal.
Its European affairs minister Amélie de Montchalin warned that the EU would not be pressured into signing any trade deal by an “artificial deadline” created by Johnson, and if Europe needed an extra six months to achieve a good deal for both sides then that is what should happen.
She said it would be virtually impossible to do a deal in 11 months if the UK were to diverge completely on regulations, as that would require a hugely complicated “line by line” negotiation on tariffs and border controls. Guardian 28 Feb
https://www.theguardian.com/
Boris Johnson talks tough before US trade talks
Boris Johnson has said he will drive a hard bargain as the UK outlined its negotiating objectives for the forthcoming trade talks with the US.
In an acknowledgement of deep concerns among the British electorate that the US will demand access to the NHS, the government stated once again that it remains committed to keeping the health service universal and free at the point of use.
The British team also wants to guarantee high standards and protections for British consumers and workers, including on animal welfare.
Johnson said: “Trading Scottish smoked salmon for Stetson hats, we will deliver lower prices and more choice for our shoppers.”
The government are preparing to publish its negotiation mandate with the US on Monday.
The talks will take place in parallel alongside negotiations with the EU over a post-Brexit relationship. Guardian 1 Mar
https://www.theguardian.com/
And this shows that Brexit is as much about relationships and emotion, which also just about sums up the story after this…
“Ireland has the upper hand”
Irish Times columnist Finn McRedmond: “It seems the notion of Ireland as a country with its own interests, capable of working to its own advantage – to many in the UK government, and its friends in the UK press (from the Telegraph to the Spectator to the Express) – is not just inconceivable but a straightforward impossibility.
“This is an institutional discomfort with Ireland’s newfound status – as a member of the trading bloc the UK decided to leave, for the first time enjoying the upper hand over its closest neighbour in the Brexit negotiations.
“And as the next phase gets under way, with the likelihood of striking a trade deal looking vanishingly unlikely, we are left with an unavoidable conclusion: that attacks about “little Ireland’s ridiculous leaders” and the “naive”, “dishonest” approach they took to negotiations comes not from a place of confidence but insecurity about what lies in store for Brexit Britain.” Irish Times 28 Feb
Johnson baby possibly ‘conceived on day he extended Brexit’
Boris Johnson’s new baby was conceived on a ‘very special occasion’, according to those who have crunched the numbers. The PM’s soon-to-be third wife Carrie Symonds announced they were engaged and she was ‘hatching’ a new baby
Miss Symonds has reportedly told friends she is five-months pregnant and due in early summer. Therefore, speculation is mounting the baby was conceived at the end of October, around the same time Mr Johnson was forced to extend Brexit. Metro 1 Mar
