Post-virus everything is going to change. That’s the dominant view of national and international media. But how exactly do they see the future? This regular digest section gives some of their answers and views/Edited by George Hamilton
In this edition (May 29):
Johnson’s promised Brexit border in Irish Sea ‘will not be ready in time’
- Influential thinktank warns that UK will need to extend transition period in wake of coronavirus or risk very hard border
‘Staycations’ with added social distancing to be this year’s norm
- Tourist sites – including Titanic Belfast – make plans to offer fun post-virus. But for theatres:“How do you put on Romeo and Juliet when Romeo can’t be within two metres of Juliet?”
Telemedicine could be integrated into post-pandemic hospital treatment in NI
- Some lockdown changes could be the `new normal’ for hospitals and schools
Problems with China: Bojo’s got a big decision: how much will China be allowed to buy up in the UK? And China’s young, facing major job issues, may turn into a political problem for the country’s rulers:
#1 The UK’s great China dilemma
- Caught between two superpowers, Britain faces difficult decisions on everything from nuclear power to medicine
#2 China’s Young Struggle for Jobs in the Post-Outbreak Era
Finding work for a generation has become a major priority for the country’s leaders, who have promised a better life in exchange for a lack of political freedom.
Virus has changed shopping for ever, claims M&S boss
- Steve Rowe, chief executive of Marks & Spencer, says the crisis will accelerate the shift to online
‘Tsunami of job losses’ when furlough scheme ends
- UK’s biggest recruiter fears the labour market is heading towards a ‘day of reckoning’ when the support ends
..and, finally, a little light relief: Hygiene fears may spell the end for urinals
- Infection-beating toilet techniques may become the norm
Johnson’s promised Brexit border in Irish Sea ‘will not be ready in time’
A new Brexit border in the Irish Sea will not be ready by Boris Johnson’s end-of-year deadline, according to a new analysis that warns more than 60 administrations, government departments and public bodies will be involved in overseeing the new system.
In its most forthright intervention to date, the influential thinktank Institute for Government (IfG) said the transition period must be extended or a longer implementation period agreed for the new border arrangements in the Irish Sea.
“Key businesses such as freight transport associations and trading associations are focused on maintaining supply chains rather than getting ready for new border arrangements, and many businesses are focusing on staying afloat, not complying with new regulatory requirements. Against the background of a global pandemic, it is very difficult to see how preparations to implement the protocol can be completed before the end of the year – given the scale of both the decisions and practical work still required.”
New arrangements dealing with goods flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland are needed as part of the so-called Northern Ireland protocol, hammered out by Johnson and the EU in January to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. A failure to implement it by the end of December would instead lead to the implementation of a very hard border in the Irish Sea.
The IfG’s stark warning comes after Michael Gove, the cabinet office minister, said last week that checks on goods heading from great Britain to Northern Ireland would be needed to maintain “disease-free status” on the island of Ireland, with border inspection posts for agrifood. It contradicted Johnson’s repeated vow that there would be no checks.
The IfG, however, suggests that more sweeping changes will be needed than those admitted by Gove. “The protocol creates a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea, which the UK will be legally obliged to administer under supervision from EU institutions,” it states. “Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK customs territory but will be required to align with EU rules on customs and regulations.
“The UK government must recognise the scale of the implementation task and make it a government priority even in these difficult times. The UK needs to scale up existing systems for customs administration, design and implement new systems for tariff administration and compensation and develop new capacity for regulatory checks.
“With UK ministers only recently publicly stating what additional processes may be needed, progress so far has been slow. With 64 departments, public bodies and agencies across the UK with scope for involvement in the implementation of the protocol, clarity on what is required is key.”
Its analysis also warns that the protocol arrangements will be voted on by the Northern Ireland assembly every four to eight years, making it a “potentially destabilising issue” for years to come. Guardian May 23
‘Staycations’ with added social distancing to be this year’s norm
The Royal Albert Hall was expecting sales of about £8.5m in the months from March to May. The historic venue does not receive public funding and requires at least 85pc of its seats to be filled during an event just to break even.
But as May draws to an end, it looks likely to have brought in just £70,000 from member donations during the period, while refunding more than £4m to customers for cancelled or postponed events.
This is the stark reality that many of Britain’s biggest tourist destinations and travel firms are facing after trade was wiped out during lockdown. UK tourist board VisitBritain expects overseas spending to drop 54pc this year, equivalent to a £15.1bn loss to the economy, as travel restrictions and safety fears surrounding the virus force foreign visitors to stay at home. Domestic tourism in Britain is forecast to lose £22bn in spending across holidays and day visits alone.
However, with Britons’ plans to travel overseas likely to be left in ruins, some observers believe there will still be a dash for holidays in the UK and day visits to major attractions.
“It’s quite clear that while there is demand and a desire for some people to go out, clearly it’s not going to be for everybody,” says Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UKHospitality. “The message the Government is sending that Britons’ international summer holidays are cancelled, combined with the quarantine, will direct more people looking at ‘staycations’.”
Critics believe any appetite for UK breaks will be obliterated by the economic shock caused by the pandemic.
“There’s not going to be a big spike in demand because consumer confidence is through the floor,” says Ros Pritchard, director general of the British Holiday and Home Parks Association, whose members include camping sites, caravan parks and self-catered holiday lets. “The Government’s warning messages have worked: people are frightened, they’re staying at home.”
Trade body the Association of Leading Visitor Attractions (ALVA) expects outdoor venues such as gardens, zoos, safari parks and country estates to be the most popular attractions with visitors when lockdown restrictions are eased. Intimate indoor attractions such as theatres will take the longest to recover.
Venues are expected to stagger visiting times to prevent overcrowding, while many will go cashless and encourage customers to book online before they arrive. The Titanic Belfast is planning to manage visitor flow by making certain days open exclusively to families, with others reserved for elderly visitors.
At Chester Zoo, management are hopeful they will be able to reopen the site as early as next month, albeit at a significantly reduced capacity. The zoo has been closed since March 21 but about half of its 600 staff continue to work to maintain upkeep of its 35,000 animals, which cost as much as £465,000 a week just to feed.
About 97pc of sales are made from visitors coming through the doors, meaning a reopening as soon as possible is critical, says Jamie Christon, the site’s chief operating officer.
Chester Zoo will cap visitors at 3,000 per day initially, compared with its normal capacity of between 15,000 and 16,000, and it plans to introduce tickets for afternoon and evening visits. Christon says that, based on this capacity, it will be able to get “some” income back into the organisation.
The Royal Albert Hall is working with government to find a solution that will allow it to reopen without the two-metre restrictions.
Craig Hassall, the chief executive, is optimistic this will enable the hall to start putting on concerts again by the autumn and resolve some of the artistic dilemmas posed by the rule. “How do you put on Romeo and Juliet when Romeo can’t be within two metres of Juliet?” he asks. Daily Telegraph May 24
Telemedicine could be integrated into post-pandemic hospital treatment in NI
Changes during lockdown to how doctors see patients and children are taught could remain in place as part of the `new normal’.
Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said the lessons will be learned from the use of `telemedicine’ among other Covid-19 linked innovations in treatment.
Health minister Robin Swann is “planning for how you re-engage, bringing people in for their normal hospital appointments, all those things that were deferred because of Covid”.
“We also need to take this as a chance to learn, telemedicine, all those things that have been effectively used right now, how can that play more of a role in the future?
“Over the course of the weeks and months ahead you’ll have a better picture of what the health service looks like on the other side of this.”
On schools, the Sinn Féin deputy leader said education minister Peter Weir “has committed to… working with our teaching unions, working with our stakeholders” to ensure they can open in September with “social distancing in place”.
First minister Arlene Foster stressed the executive is committed to a “partnership approach”.
“It’s always easier to turn something on than to come back out again and there are many different sectors who are working with our ministers at present to try to plan that step-by-step approach coming back into the new normal.
“We will pick up some experiences of the lockdown, working from home… what does that look like in the future, can people have the option of working from home, do they want the option of working from home – some people may not.
“…A lot of pieces have to interlock with each other so that’s the sort of work that’s going on with all of the departments at present and we have to make sure we do that in a way that’s clear and is also safe and make sure people understand.
“…We can take the learning from where we’ve been and also make sure that we keep everybody safe.” Irish News May 23
The UK’s great China dilemma
On the picturesque Suffolk coast, a battle is intensifying that will help define Britain’s relationship with China. In one corner is a group of celebrities and locals, including the Love Actually actor Bill Nighy, and Andy Wood, chief executive of Adnams brewery in Southwold. In the other are two nuclear power giants, Electricité de France (EDF) and China General Nuclear (CGN). China and France want to build Sizewell C, a nuclear power station capable of supplying 7% of the UK’s electricity.
The Stop Sizewell C campaigners share one concern with some politicians, notably the hard right of the Conservative Party: why is Britain relying on China to supply its electricity?
Sizewell is just a part of the communist state’s Belt and Road initiative to dominate the world with cash, technology and influence. It plans to use the UK as a showcase for its nuclear technology, with state-owned CGN providing 20% of the funds for Sizewell. China is also helping bankroll the delayed and over-budget Hinkley Point C power station in Somerset.
However, the bigger prize lies on the Essex coast at Bradwell. There, 40 miles east of London, CGN wants to install its homegrown HPR1000 nuclear reactors. CGN will be the two-thirds owner of the Bradwell plant, EDF the junior partner. EDF and CGN claim that the power stations will be impervious to cyber attack.
Western nations that have seen their manufacturing bases eroded by reliance on cheap Chinese manufacturing are rethinking whether that dependence is safe. France and Germany have proposed returning control of medicine and vaccine production to Europe.
In Britain, a new China-sceptic organisation, the China Research Group, has been formed by Tory MPs led by Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the foreign affairs select committee.
Boris Johnson’s government has been inconsistent as he eyes trade deals with both the US and China. He angered America by allowing Huawei access to the UK’s 5G network last year. However, last week, asked whether he might intervene in Chinese takeovers of sensitive defence companies, Johnson said it was “right to be concerned about the buying up of UK technology now by countries that may have ulterior motives”, promising measures in the “next few weeks”.
“If it [2015] was the golden era, it has been pretty fast downhill since then,” said economist George Magnus, an associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. “The pandemic has woken people up. It has made international relations really personal for everybody, not just for health reasons but because it has upended the world economy.”
While opportunities might arise from a more hawkish stance on China, such as a boost to domestic manufacturing, the tension poses risks to the vast flows of trade and capital between Britain and China. The UK exported £23.4bn of goods and services to China last year.
That was dwarfed by £44.9bn of Chinese imports. The UK has been the most open European country to takeovers and investment by Chinese companies, according to the American consultancy Rhodium Group. It calculated that Chinese foreign direct investment into the UK totalled €50.3bn between 2000 and 2019. Next came Germany, with €22.7bn, Italy with €15.9bn and France with €14.4bn, although controls on capital outflows have reduced Chinese spending since 2016. Its sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation, has hoovered up stakes in trophy assets from Heathrow airport to Thames Water and National Grid’s gas pipelines.
The Covid-19 crisis and sterling’s weakness have left chunks of the economy — particularly automotive and aerospace suppliers — vulnerable to takeovers.
“We need to get much more aware of foreign takeovers in the UK,” said Tugendhat. “The Aussies, the French, the Americans have laws on it. Britain is one of very few countries that has little legal protection. Decades of openness because we are the ultimate free traders have left us naked at the party. We need to ask, ‘At what price?’ Of course we don’t want to be protectionist, but if we sell the family silver, what are we left with?”
The potential repercussions of a tide of anti-China sentiment are significant. Britain’s universities rely heavily on Chinese students, whose numbers have risen by a third in the past five years to 120,385. They make up 5% of the UK student population and pay significant fees.
“You can’t take a continent the size of China and say you disagree with all of it,” said a British businessman with links to China. “We should seek to be an influencer, to shape the way China transitions to its full role in the world. You do that through diplomacy.”
At CGN, concern is growing about the rising tide of Sinophobia and its investment in the UK. As the Chinese embassy in London pumps out defensive statements about China’s role in tackling Covid-19, Britain will have to decide whether it wants nuclear power stations funded — and powered — by China. CGN’s UK chief executive, Zheng Dongshan, is understood to have pressed energy minister Nadhim Zahawi for clarity around the UK’s intentions on new nuclear.
“They don’t just sit there quietly listening to being criticised,” said a nuclear industry source. “The Chinese could decide that the UK needs China more than China needs the UK, particularly in long-term finance.”
Britain, sandwiched between America and China, may be forced to choose between two superpowers. “That places us in a very difficult position, because who do you side with?” asked Sir Martin Sorrell, founder of advertising giant WPP. “When it comes to negotiating a US/UK trade deal, we’re going to be right in the middle of all this . . . We’ve got to have a foot in America and a foot in China — you’ve got to do both. You bloody well hope the Foreign Office can figure this one out. The pressure’s going to be huge.” Sunday Times May 24
China’s Young Struggle for Jobs in the Post-Outbreak Era
Relations with the United States are at their lowest point in decades and Hong Kong is seething with fear and anger, but China’s biggest problem by far is getting its people back to work. Millions of workers were laid off or furloughed while China battled the coronavirus outbreak. Many of those who kept their jobs have seen their pay cut and future prospects narrow.
China’s youngest workers in particular have entered perhaps the country’s toughest job market in the modern era. Many are reducing their expectations to take any job they can get. The pressure is about to intensify: Another nearly 8.7 million young college graduates are waiting in the wings this year.
China is not the only country where younger workers are facing a jobs crisis — young adults in the United States are particularly vulnerable in the downturn. But for the world, global growth will be hard to rekindle until China gets fully back to work. And the damage to the Communist Party could be long lasting. It derives its political power from the promise of delivering a better life for the Chinese people, a promise that has become increasingly difficult to fulfill.
Demonstrating the depths of the uncertainty, Chinese leaders meeting in Beijing since last week parted with precedent and declined to set an annual economic growth target. But they have unveiled other goals that detail their biggest worries, including cutting unemployment in the cities and taming food inflation, which has jumped because of outbreak-related supply disruptions and an unrelated swine disease.
Chinese leaders have acknowledged broader problems in the work force. China’s factory workers have been hit by the trade war with the United States. Service sector companies like online delivery firms are hiring, but these jobs offer low pay and high stress.
To help, China’s top leaders have pledged to “use all possible means” to create jobs, including a goal to create nine million new jobs this year. But many of its plans borrow from Beijing’s old playbook, which include spending on public works, funding wasteful state-run companies and keeping the financial sector supplied with new money.
Those tactics have proven to be less effective in recent years. Even when banks are pushed to lend to smaller businesses, China’s biggest group of employers, the borrowing burden is still too high for many companies. Spending on public works gets less bang for the buck than it once did, as China’s economy matures and as its work force becomes increasingly college-educated and office bound.
China’s current official unemployment statistics, while considered imprecise by many economists, nevertheless suggest the depth of the problem for young workers. The jobless rate for people between the ages of 16 and 24 totaled nearly 14 percent, more than twice the official figure for the nation as a whole.
Many use words like “lost” to describe their state of mind. “I’ve exhausted all kinds of software for job hunting,” one person said. “Did not find a job! What more can you do!! I’m going to lose faith.”
Chinese companies that are hiring can afford to be choosy. Recruiters can choose from a larger pool of candidates, said Martin Ma, a human resources officer for iSoftStone, a software development company that has more than 60,000 employees and counts big foreign and domestic companies as clients. Starting salaries are lower.
“The posts available for graduates are all basic, and the salary isn’t too high,” Mr. Ma said. “The graduates do not fully understand the market. Their expectations are quite high.”
Ms. Huang Bing, a drama-school graduate, attended the Central Academy of Drama, which boasts Chinese film stars like Zhang Ziyi and Gong Li among its alumni, and graduated with a dream of someday producing plays and performances of her own.
The coronavirus upended those plans. She now lives on $500 a month, with half going to rent for her apartment in the commuter town of Yanjiao near Beijing, that she gets from savings, her family and from the cash gift she received during the Lunar New Year holiday in January.
“Many of my plans have been disturbed,” Ms. Huang said. “I also hesitate to place orders for many things I wanted to buy.”
Ms. Huang is considering whether she can pursue a master’s degree abroad. That route would require the world to shrug off its outbreak-era limits on travel, which seems far from certain anytime soon.
“Because of the pandemic, the whole world is in a disarray,” Ms. Huang said. “So I feel stuck in limbo.” New York Times May 26
Virus has changed shopping for ever, claims M&S boss
The chairman of Marks & Spencer believes that the coronvirus pandemic will result in lasting changes to shopping habits and that it has forced the high street retailer to squeeze “three years into one” in preparation.
“We may have lost a year financially, but it will not be a lost year for the business. We will come out of the other side a changed business. It is like we have done three years in one,” Archie Norman said.
As part of its strategy to tackle the pandemic, M&S has scrapped layers of bureaucracy. Steve Rowe, its chief executive, said that the company was being run “as a family of accountable businesses with less committees and less meetings”. The retailer said that it would be examining headcount at all levels to cut costs, with Mr Norman adding: “We are learning what we can do with fewer people in extreme circumstances.”
Mr Rowe, 52, expects the pandemic to accelerate the shift to online shopping that will continue long after the lockdown is lifted. “From the outset, we recognised that we were facing a crisis whose effects and aftershocks will endure for the coming year and beyond,” he said.
Mr Rowe also raised concerns that people may stop seeing shopping as a leisure activity and that social distancing measures could dent consumer enthusiasm for the store experience.
He said that he expected more people to drive to retail parks, where they can park easily and have more space to shop, rather than take a trip to high streets and city centres.
The pandemic has heralded the rise of the “shutdown uniform”. Steve Rowe, the chief executive of Marks & Spencer said yesterday that he could “count on one hand” how many ties the retailer had sold since the country went into lockdown, with sales down 98 per cent. Sales of suits and tailored jackets have nosedived, too.
Instead, there has been a boom in its new athleisurewear range as more people have exercised. “Our Good Move range has been flying at the moment,” Mr Rowe said, adding that sales of sports bras were up by 151 per cent.
What customers were buying was “completely different from what it would have been a year ago”, Archie Norman said. Sales of pyjamas have jumped by 125 per cent and the emphasis on home comforts has resulted in a 150 per cent spike in sales of bedding.
The retailer said that the traditional early evening peak of online shopping — as people arrived home from work — had turned into a late afternoon run The Times May 21
‘Tsunami of job losses’ when furlough scheme ends
The boss of Britain’s biggest recruiter, James Reed, chairman of online jobs site Reed, said he feared the labour market is heading towards a “day of reckoning” when the support ends.
“The worry is what happens when furlough winds up,” he said. “Is there a wave of redundancies coming? The danger is a tsunami of job losses.” Mr Reed added: “Companies I talk to are a half or a quarter of the size they were when they furloughed people, or they are on the verge of going bankrupt.”
Economists fear a second wave of redundancies could sweep the UK as the furlough scheme is rolled back, threatening to derail the economy’s recovery.
The jobs retention scheme could be propping up so-called “zombie jobs” that would not survive without the support. The Government pays 80pc of furloughed workers’ pay to prevent mass unemployment by the lockdown.
The economy is unlikely to have staged a full recovery before the scheme is wound down, putting jobs at risk. Mr Reed predicts unemployment “will go up significantly” and warned the jobless rate could top 15pc. Daily Telegraph May 25
Hygiene fears may spell the end for urinals
Everywhere you go, there is nowhere to go. The closure of many public conveniences as part of the coronavirus lockdown is forcing a rethink of the way Britons relieve themselves away from home.
“The way the world is going, the traditional public convenience is becoming a thing of the past,” said Raymond Martin, managing director of the British Toilet Association, which is advising dozens of councils and companies on the problems of maintaining safe washroom facilities at a time of acute anxiety about the lethally infectious virus.
A coming revolution in lavatory design may spell the end of the urinals that have enabled men to come and go in a fraction of the time it takes women to queue for comparatively fewer facilities.
Dreary interiors of ageing facilities may have to have their “guts ripped out”, to be replaced with gender-neutral cubicles, automatic sensors, one-way traffic and other infection-beating “touchless” technologies, said Martin. “It’s going to cost a lot of money”, he added.
Martin argues that an accent on safe and modern lavatories must be a key element in restoring normal economic activity. “Toilets have a massive commercial effect on an area, which is why they are one of the first things you plan in any new shopping centre,” he said. “When you get people to come to you, you want them to stay. Tourist offices all over the country should be telling visitors: ‘Come see our castle, come see our beaches, come see our state-of-the-art toilets’.”
The biggest changes may be in store for the traditional British conveniences with a gents, a ladies and a disabled facility between them. One new design calls for one-way traffic with both genders queuing at one door and automated washbasins at the other door with individual cubicles in between.
“The government says it is a local issue of waste management and nothing to do with them. But it’s about public health and providing an essential service. What about the lorry drivers we rely on to deliver food to our supermarkets? They are driving up and down the country and all the toilets are closed. They are reduced to using plastic bottles and cardboard boxes in their cabins. And a growing number of lorry drivers are women.”
Martin concluded: “We want to bring back life to this country, and toilets are a vital part of that. The government must do something.” Sunday Times May 24
