As the EU/UK trade talks started yesterday (2 Mar), today’s media are reporting that our First and Deputy First Ministers are getting worried about NI/GB trade from 2021. They should be: the UK could walk in June. But the post-Brexit world for the UK is also almost equally dominated by a possible US trade deal, which, even the government itself says would not do that much for the economy, while, at the same time, really annoying the Americans because of chicken, NHS et al, where the UK takes – apparently – a very different position to the US
Also in this issue
- What’s the future for retail post-Brexit?
- …and finally…could old Boney’s bones be part of a Brexit deal?
Foster and O’Neill seek urgent meeting about post-Brexit trading terms
Stormont’s leaders have asked for an urgent meeting with the British government to seek clarity on post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland.
First Minister and DUP leader Arlene Foster told the Assembly while she and Sinn Féin had different views on Brexit, they were united in trying to ensure the best possible outcome for people in the region.
Mrs Foster said she and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill would be raising concerns with the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove.
It comes amid conflicting reports on the British government’s interpretation of the Brexit withdrawal deal, and whether it intends to fulfil an EU requirement for certain checks to be carried out on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. Irish Times 3 March
Brussels wargaming: EU preparing for Britain to walk away in June
Brussels is calculating that Britain will stage a dramatic walkout of post-Brexit trade talks in June to force the EU to make a last-ditch offer in September, it has emerged.
But EU sources fear the British strategy of forcing negotiations to the “eleventh hour” of the end of year deadline for a deal to be finalised could backfire, leading to the “markets losing it” and the UK and EU trading on WTO terms.
Three people familiar with the negotiations said the crunch moment could even come before June, Bloomberg reported, particularly if neither side is willing to pull back from their red lines in the first negotiating rounds.
“EU sources warned there was no chance of the UK getting its way in financial services by June. The European Commission had suggested an agreement on financial services would be desirable by then but that is no longer on offer from Brussels in the finalised EU negotiating mandate. Daily Telegraph 2 March
Two different takes on the UK’s negotiating mandate for the US deal, published yesterday (2 Mar). The Guardian is skeptical, while The Times, next story, is more upbeat
British economy ‘to grow 0.16% at best under US trade deal’
The British economy would be at most 0.16% larger by the middle of the next decade under a comprehensive trade deal with the US, the government has admitted, laying bare the limited benefits from striking an agreement with Donald Trump.
In a Department for International Trade (DIT) document, designed to kick-start post-Brexit trade talks with the White House, the government said the British economy stood to benefit from an “ambitious and comprehensive” trade deal worth a fraction of GDP, equivalent to £3.4bn after 15 years.
Outlining the start of deeper talks with Washington, the UK government insisted it would not water down animal welfare standards or put the NHS up for sale to secure a trade deal with Trump.
However, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, speaking at an event in Oxford, immediately poured cold water on several aspects of the UK’s negotiating position.
Talks around securing a new trade deal are expected to take several years, which may see conversations going beyond the president’s “fast track authority” period, which runs until June 2021. This means he can avoid Congress filibustering or amending a treaty struck with another country. Guardian 2 March
US trade talks will lower prices, Johnson vows
The public has been promised lower prices and greater choice on supermarket shelves as ministers prepare to start post-Brexit trade negotiations with the United States.
Negotiating objectives were published on 2 March along with an estimate that a deal would boost British wages by up to £1.8 billion, or 0.2 per cent.
Boris Johnson pledged last night to “drive a hard bargain” during talks over a free-trade agreement that Whitehall officials hope will support some of Britain’s leading industries.
However, the overall boost to the economy will be an estimated maximum of 0.16 per cent of GDP, or £3.4 billion, the document said.
Sectors such as energy and electronics will see employment boosts but jobs could be lost in financial services, agriculture, communications and retail, modelling suggests.
Even though Brussels’ demands for commitment to a “level playing field” on issues such as environmental standards and workers’ rights are the sticking point in trade talks with the EU, the British government will ask the US to commit to upholding such standards.
After concerns about the US interest in the NHS, the document states: “the NHS is not, and never will be, for sale to the private sector, whether overseas or domestic. When we are negotiating trade agreements, the NHS will not be on the table. The price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table.”
Responding to concerns about US agricultural standards, notably fears about being forced to take “chlorine -washed chicken”, the document insists: “Without exception, imports into the UK will meet our stringent food safety standards — all food imports into the UK must be safe and this will not change in any future agreement.”
Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, described striking such agreements as “one of the key opportunities” offered by leaving the EU and regaining an independent trade policy.
Britain exported goods and services to the US worth £57.4 billion last year and imported £51.1 billion. Its total EU exports amounted to £168.2 billion and imports stood at £263.9 billion.
The Trump administration’s own objectives for talks — published twelve months ago — revealed plans to demand the removal of barriers that “unfairly” block American agricultural producers from exporting to the UK, raising expectations that it would push for the end of bans on chlorinated chicken and hormone-fed beef.
Its other targets include full market access for American pharmaceutical companies and “non-discriminatory treatment” from state-owned enterprises like the NHS.
Almost half of small and medium-sized exporting companies in the UK intend to prioritise the American market over the next three years, according to research by the Federation of Small Businesses.
Mike Cherry, its national chairman, said: “This shows the sheer scale of ambition that will be unleashed, if we can take full advantage of the opportunities a free-trade agreement will open up. The success of the UK economy rests on inspiring more small businesses to go global, and trade around the world.” The Times 2 March
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
Brexit: The aftermath for retail
“Almost 80 per cent of all the food that UK retailers import comes from the EU, making the EU negotiation particularly important for these essential goods,” the British Retail Consortium has stated.
“Most of this comes through Dover and Folkestone, the UK’s largest roll-on/roll-off ports, which handle almost 7000 lorries every day.”
Despite fears, Birmingham City University lecturer Dr Steve McCabe believes “nothing dramatic is expected” – due to the transition period. However, he said that should there be changes in such arrangements through the implementation of tariffs on food imported from the EU, there could be an increase in prices.
Currencies Direct chief market analyst Phil McHugh agreed. He said retailers who do not take steps to mitigate the currency risk “will add to their problems in a post-Brexit environment as trade talks are currently threatening profit margins through increased import costs.
One of the major issues the retail industry is likely to face following Brexit relates to staffing.
Said Shara Pledger, an associate at Latitude Law.“When free movement ends and EU and non-EU workforce are treated in the same way, the criteria will have profound repercussions and has the potential to cause huge skills shortages within retail where roles have been widely filled by EU workers”.
Kevin Murray, managing director at digital commerce agency Greenlight, said: “Retailers can now expect a difficulty to trade with EU customers, increased delivery times, as well as a decrease in overall transactions.”
“With the January 31 deadline behind us, UK brands must start looking towards a future separate from the EU.
“The UK’s post-Brexit future has delivered such uncertainty over recent years that many retailers have remained stagnant mainly due to apprehension over what is to come.” Retail Gazette 2 March
https://www.retailgazette.co.
“Give us back Napoleon III as part of Brexit deal”
French historians have demanded the repatriation of Napoleon III whose remains are in a tomb in a church in Hampshire.
France’s final monarch died in exile and was laid to rest in Farnborough 147 years ago.
Historians in France hope to secure the ultimate artefact of imperialism and have Bonaparte’s body returned as part of deals being made in the wake of Brexit. Daily Telegraph 2 March
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
