Also in this issue:
- Care providers face 500,000 staff problem
- UK leaving EU safety body threatens £36 billion aerospace industry
- Nissan OK to £400 million investment in Sunderland – despite EU worries
- ..and, finally, Virus+Brexit sends loo rolls to the bottom
DUP about to do ungainly U-turn
…the DUP realises it has to accept the sea border and promote the concept of a best-of-both-worlds Brexit
So where are the opportunities in Northern Ireland’s special status, as the DUP will carefully not be calling it? The truth is there will be opportunities but they will come from our business climate getting weirder, not better
Northern Ireland’s best hope for a buccaneering Brexit comes from the asymmetries of the withdrawal agreement. The sea border applied mainly east to west rather than west to east and only for goods, not services. We will be in different parts of the UK and EU’s internal markets, to varying degrees, with full freedom to export to Britain no matter how awkward importing becomes.
The concern with this type of future is that you end up like an enormous Gibraltar making a living off barely tolerated loopholes and geopolitical quirkiness.
If we become too clever with our access to the EU market, Brussels with tighten the rules. Managing that risk is central to the EU’s understanding of the withdrawal agreement. Firms and farmers in Britain could also ask for protection if Northern Ireland is seen to be leaking in EU goods, or just perceived as having an unfair advantage. Tightening the sea border west to east is entirely at the British government’s discretion.
It is clear from statements at Stormont that the executive foresees a future of trying to help business exploit Brexit’s asymmetric possibilities. There seems less awareness that the more this might succeed, the more the EU and even the rest of the UK might push back.
The only safe and sustainable way to have the best of both worlds is to agree it with London and Brussels every step of the way. Delightfully, if the DUP wants to explore the advantages of the EU single it will have to help negotiate our way back in. Irish News 5 Mar (Paywall)
Immigration policy will cost care sector 500,000 staff
Social care faces a recruitment black hole with potentially hundreds of thousands of positions in the sector remaining unfilled because of the government’s new immigration policy, the union representing care workers is warning.
The GMB estimates the policy will have an impact on up to half a million jobs in the UK. Its analysis of official figures reveals that more than 350,000 adult care workers were born outside the UK in the year to September 2019 – a figure that has risen by 43% in the past decade.
About 115,000 care workers are originally from an EU country and 237,000 workers were born outside the EU. Overall, almost a fifth of the care sector’s workforce was born outside the UK. According to the Office for National Statistics, there are an estimated 110,000 vacancies in adult social care. The sector has a vacancy rate of 8%, compared with an average of 2.8% across all sectors.
Under immigration rules, due to come into force on 1 January 2021, most businesses will be barred from recruiting overseas workers for jobs that pay less than £25,600 a year. The average salary for care workers employed by private providers was £16,200 last year, according to Skills for Care, which collects data on behalf of local authorities and the government. Guardian 7 Mar
UK to withdraw from EU aviation safety regulator
The UK is to withdraw from the European Union aviation safety regulator (EASA) after the Brexit transition period, Grant Shapps has confirmed.
The transport secretary said many of the most senior figures at the organisation headquartered in Cologne, Germany were British and that they would gradually return to the UK throughout this year as regulatory powers reverted to the Civil Aviation Authority.
The aerospace trade body ADS, which represents more than 1,100 UK businesses, said the decision could put high-skilled jobs at risk.
“We have been clear that continued participation in EASA is the best option to maintain the competitiveness of our £36bn aerospace industry and our access to global export markets,” the chief executive, Paul Everitt, said. Guardian 7 Mar
Nissan presses ahead with £400m Qashqai plan for Sunderland
Nissan is pushing ahead with its £400m plan to build its new Qashqai sports utility vehicle at its Sunderland factory, despite the Japanese company repeatedly warning that post-Brexit tariffs would make European manufacturing unsustainable.
The company unveiled a £52m production press as part of a £400m investment in preparation for the new third-generation Qashqai model, due to roll off the production line in 2021. The specially commissioned 2,000-tonne press has taken 18 months to install.
Nissan committed to building the new Qashqai model in Sunderland in 2016 following government assurances that Brexit would not affect competitiveness.
The company has since repeatedly warned that tariffs in Europe would jeopardise its business model as 70% of cars made in Sunderland are exported to mainland Europe. Guardian 6 Mar
Quitting EU Erasmus scheme would ‘blow a hole’ in UK economy
Quitting the EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme would “blow a hole” in the UK’s economy, taking away income of £243m a year and depriving 17,000 British young people of valuable work experience, according to a group of education and business leaders.
The group, including further education colleges and universities, is calling for the British government to make clear that continued Erasmus membership is a high priority in its talks with the EU.
Britain’s membership of the EU-wide exchange scheme known as Erasmus+ is to expire at the end of this year, alongside membership of the EU. The government’s negotiating outline offered scant hope of continued full membership, saying only that it “will consider options for participation in elements of Erasmus+ on a time-limited basis, provided the terms are in the UK’s interests”. Guardian 8 Mar
Pro-Brexit business lobby group launched
Leading Brexiteer businessmen have launched a new “voice for business” intended to rival a prominent lobby group criticised by senior ministers.
John Longworth, the former director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, and John Mills, the founder of JML, said the new network would provide an “alternative, post-Brexit voice” after the CBI spent months campaigning for the closest possible relationship with the EU.
The launch of the new group comes after Boris Johnson neglected to invite the CBI and other business lobby groups to his flagship speech on Britain’s future trading relationships last month. Daily Telegraph 7 Mar
..and, at the end, this from the Daily Telegraph, with heading as published:
Stocking up on loo roll may not be such a bum idea after all
Peter Foster, Europe Editor: Aside from prescription medicines, of all the household products that most people would fear running short of it is surely lavatory paper that tops the list. And the panic-buying of is not as irrational as it might appear.
In short, we don’t make much of it. This country is one of Europe’s biggest importers of lavatory paper and disposable nappies (which use pulp paper).
Australia, which is highly reliant on Chinese supply chains that have been crunched by draconian factory closures, has already seen panic-buying to the point where the government has introduced controls.
Which brings us back to Brexit. As things stand, the Government…[is] overtly threatening a no-deal Australian-style if the EU does not come to heel.
The transport industry is very clear that this risks bringing back the spectre of long delays at the ports, clogging up the Channel Tunnel as hauliers battle with mountains of new paperwork and customs and safety declarations.
If that happens, there remains a serious risk that the Australian-style Brexit might include some Australian-style loo-paper shortages. Those coronavirus stockpiles might come in handy yet. Daily Telegraph 6 Mar
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
