The general public broadly supports the latest lockdown measures, despite the severe impact on the nation’s mental health, but tighter restrictions are certainly bad news for the economy.
According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the cost of the third lockdown to the UK economy is almost £400 million a day.
CEBR based its forecast on hopes that lockdown could be lifted in the middle of February, but with the UK continuing to set new record highs for both cases and deaths, that now appears to be a highly optimistic estimate.
A double-dip recession now seems to be inevitable. JP Morgan economist Allan Monks predicts the UK’s economy will shrink by 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.
Businesses will be hoping for more government support if they are to make it out of the other side. Here are some of the key industries facing a grim future as a result of a trio of lockdowns.
Hospitality
With non-essential businesses told to shut down for the third lockdown, the impact on the hospitality sector that has been battered over the last 12 months has been profound.
Figures published earlier this month by the Office for National Statistics showed there was a 2.6 per cent dip in the UK’s GDP in November 2020. The hospitality sector was said to account for almost one per cent of this fall alone.
Responding to the news, chief executive for industry trade body UKHospitality Kate Nicholls noted the figures “hammer home” how important hospitality is for the health of the economy.
She added: “When we were open, albeit with restrictions, in the summer, our return to growth contributed to the economy growing. The figures highlight our power as an economic driver and show why we should be at the heart of plans to revitalise the economy.”
With no end in sight for the lockdown – some experts have claimed it could continue until May – businesses operating in the hospitality sector have been left in a state of limbo.
It is not expected that pubs and bars in Northern Ireland will be able to reopen in time for St Patrick’s Day, with one Belfast bar owner claiming he will be closed until after Easter.
Nicholls claims that hospitality “must be prioritised” as soon as the most vulnerable members of society have been vaccinated, but due to a series of ongoing issues with the inoculation process it is unclear when this might be the case.
Land-based casino industry
The UK’s gambling industry is said to support around 100,000 UK jobs in total but land-based casinos could be on their way out as a result of lockdown.
Casinos were briefly given the green light to open their doors once more but, when restrictions were then tightened once more just a few days after Christmas, they were ordered to shut.
It seems the obvious outcome will see most gamblers going online and this is a trend that is already being seen in the sector with online gambling on the rise during the course of 2020.
The Betting and Gaming Council supports the latest lockdown, but casino companies in the UK have been struggling to cope.
Genting, one of the top casino companies in the country, has already shuttered its sites in Bristol, Margate and Torquay and the brick and mortar casino in Southport will follow suit.
Jobs have also been slashed at Genting casinos in Birmingham, Blackpool, Edinburgh, Glasgow and London with other casino businesses also finding it hard to stay afloat.
Retail
It is impossible to undersell the devastating impact of the pandemic on the retail sector.
Despite warnings from months ago about the consequences of COVID-19 on the industry, it has been almost impossible for businesses in the sector to keep their heads above water.
The British Retail Consortium said this month that non-food sales fell about five per cent during 2020, contributing to the worst annual sales performance on record for the retail industry.
A KPMG study has also warned that there could be up to 400,000 retail jobs lost in England alone as a direct result of the pandemic.
High streets were predicted by the research to be decimated, especially in towns located in the London commuter belt, due to the rise in the number of people working from home
The rise of the internet had also damaged the retail industry, but COVID-19 could be a fatal blow for a lot of businesses in Northern Ireland.
